So, maybe there'll be some good new spy movies

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is accusing the United States of orchestrating the fighting in Georgia. He says that there were United States citizens not only training Georgian forces, but actively participating in the fight with Russian troops. He didn't offer any proof, but he claimed that one of the presidential candidates needed the extra tension to win the election.

This is a pretty big deal. There's such an influx of news nowadays that I dismiss the vast majority of it as reporting for the sake of reporting -- there isn't much, actually, from the election that needs to be covered, and unless we're listening to NPR or reading BBC articles, we aren't getting too much about the wars, anyway. But this seems pretty important to me.

Either Putin has decided that Russia needs to flex some muscle internationally and re-establish its dominance in Europe and Asia, and he's making stuff up (or being paranoid, as several Russian leaders before him have been), or, the United States is playing at some high stakes tables.

Thirty years ago, this would have smelled to high heaven of Cold War intelligence agencies. Maybe it still does. If the CIA or whatever other Ian Fleming/Robert Ludlum organization you like had something to do with this, then there's been a very severe miscalculation of its own abilities and of Putin and Russia's resolve. Other nations have taken the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary pretty seriously -- it'd be a good idea to honor Russia's de facto sphere of influence (at least if we'd like to avoid another Cuban Missile Crisis). If Putin is indeed making stuff up in order to stoke Russian imperialism, well, there's still been a miscalculation. Sure, the USSR collapsed, but we should realize that sovereignty for those former satellite nations has its limitations as far as Russia is concerned. By the same token that big ticket political decisions (like elections and nationalization of resources) in Central and South American are essentially subject to Washington's approval, so too are Eastern Europe's rulers and policies dependent on Russian approval.

We can blow all of the smoke we want about Georgia, or Chechnya, or Ukraine, but when it comes down to it, bulldog diplomacy isn't going to get us too far in Eastern Europe -- and we'd be in real trouble if we tried to apply the clandestine subterfuge route Putin is speaking of. I don't pretend to be an expert on negotiation or international conflict resolution, but it seems like the bottom line is that we are not well-positioned to be entrenched in another Cold War. Our budget is trillions of dollars behind each year, our military is overstretched as it is, the public is tired of our wars, China is becoming a much bolder rival, and, uh, Russia's not Communist anymore -- we can't really claim any ideological high ground with which to dedicate and focus public opinion. It seems as if our only option is to admit that, yes, they have the influence and the brute force to dominate Eastern Europe as they choose. Perhaps our best tack is to hope that if Putin is met with some level-headed, non-chest pounding requests to give its former subjects some autonomy, matched by a similar commitment from us regarding Central and South America and the Middle East, he'll play ball.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/28/russia.georgia.cold.war/index.html